Artificial Intelligence and China’s Cross-Border E-Commerce Development: Threshold Effects and Transmission Mechanisms

Abstract

The integration of artificial intelligence and search technology is transforming traditional online shopping models, particularly cross-border e-commerce (CBEC), which involves complex customer multi-attribute decision-making with numerous considerations. This study systematically examines the influence of artificial intelligence on the high-quality advancement of CBEC and its underlying mechanisms using panel data from 30 Chinese provinces covering the period 2013–2023. The study found a significant positive correlation between artificial intelligence and cross-border e-commerce. This conclusion remains valid after a series of robustness tests (including removing the interference of pandemic-related data, substituting core explanatory variables, substituting the dependent variable, and lagging explanatory variables by one period). Mechanism analysis indicates that the positive impact of AI on the high-quality development of cross-border e-commerce is realized through improvements in logistics capabilities and the unlocking of consumer potential, with mediation effects accounting for 40.27% and 17.02%, respectively. Threshold model results show that the positive impact of AI on the high-quality development of cross-border e-commerce exhibits a single threshold effect based on the level of human capital; once human capital exceeds the threshold value, the coefficient further increases. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that AI has the most significant empowering effect on the development of cross-border e-commerce in the eastern regions; however, its impact on the central and western regions is relatively minor. It is worth noting that AI exerts its empowering effect more effectively in regions with high e-commerce procurement activity, whereas the relationship is not significant in regions with low activity.

The authors' abstract, as published at the source. Journal of theoretical and applied electronic commerce research, 2026 · DOI ↗