Ayna Gözlemcilik Laboratuvarı V: Tahminci Yozlaşması Altında Özyinelemeli Güvenilirlik

Özet (abstract)

This release forms part of the Computational Observerhood Labs of Mirror Programme, Volume I: Observerhood. Lab V tests recursive reliability: what happens when a system’s first-order reliability estimate itself becomes unreliable. It follows Mirror Observerhood Labs I-IV, which established that self-model reliability can matter, that decomposition alone is insufficient, that reliability must be actionable and cost-sensitive, and that reliability-gated repair has a bounded positive threshold region. Across 39,200 deterministic episodes, four architectures are compared: a no-reliability baseline, a first-order reliability agent, a recursive reliability agent and an oracle upper bound. The recursive reliability agent outperforms first-order reliability under reliability blindness, estimator corruption and false-alarm reliability, but underperforms when first-order reliability is already truthful or when meta-diagnostic cost is too high. The central finding is conditional: recursive reliability is not infinite self-reference and it is not always useful. It becomes observer-relevant only where lower-order reliability can fail in viability-relevant ways and where the cost of detecting that failure is lower than the avoided loss. The release includes a standalone paper and a reproducibility package containing the Python implementation, fixed-seed outputs, summary data, recursive-advantage data, figures, requirements, citation metadata and licences.

Yazarların özeti; kaynağından alınmıştır. Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research), 2026 · DOI ↗