Science· 2025Q1
Ultralong, supershear rupture of the 2025 M w 7.7 Mandalay earthquake reveals unaccounted risk
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- Q1SCImago
- 2025year
Short summary
The 2025 M w 7.7 Mandalay earthquake ruptured 475 km of the Sagaing Fault at supershear speeds (>5 km/s), far exceeding predictions and exposing millions to intense shaking.
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Key points
- The 2025 Mandalay earthquake ruptured 475 km of the Sagaing Fault, twice the predicted length for its magnitude.
- Rupture occurred at supershear velocities (>5 km/s), confirmed by kinematic models and a Rayleigh Mach wave.
- The event's length and speed significantly increased near-fault shaking exposure for a large population.
- Probabilistic seismic hazard analyses may mischaracterize risk by not including such long ruptures.
AI-generated from the title and abstract; the full text is not read.
Abstract
The 28 March 2025 moment magnitude ( M w ) 7.7 earthquake in Mandalay, Burma (Myanmar), ruptured 475 kilometers of the Sagaing Fault, which was more than twice the length predicted by magnitude scaling relationships. Kinematic slip models and observation of a Rayleigh Mach wave that passed through parts of Thailand confirmed that rupture occurred at supershear velocities of greater than 5 kilometers per second. The anomalous length exposed a vast population to violent near-fault shaking. The Mandalay earthquake is a modern analog for the M w 7.9 1906 San Francisco earthquake, another atypically long and fast rupture. Probabilistic seismic hazard analyses use scaling relations that do not account for such long ruptures at moderate magnitudes. This limitation, in conjunction with a likely increased population and infrastructure exposure for atypically long ruptures, contributes to a potential mischaracterization of seismic risk.
The authors' abstract, as published at the source. Science, 2025 · DOI ↗
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GeophysicsEarth and Planetary Sciences