Modelling plant disease spread via high-resolution human mobility networks

Abstract

Abstract Human mobility plays a crucial role in the spread of human diseases but is rarely quantified in plant disease epidemics. To address this gap, we integrate a unique, high-resolution network of human movements in New Zealand with a metapopulation model to mechanistically simulate pathogen transmission. We calibrate the model on the nationwide 2010 kiwifruit vine disease (Psa-V) outbreak and show that it reproduces the observed spatio-temporal spread, confirming that the human mobility network is a strong foundation for modelling human-mediated transmission dynamics. By analysing spatial infection trends, we find that most dispersal occurs locally, as often illustrated in the plant-outbreak literature. However, sporadic long-range connections are necessary to model a nationwide outbreak. Using the model as an in silico laboratory, we demonstrate that the severity of human-mediated pathogen transmission is highly sensitive to the timing and location of initial importation. We observe a potential causal link between seasonal labour patterns and epidemic risk in high-traffic seasons. This study showcases a novel data-driven framework for modelling the spatio-temporal spread of agricultural pathogens when human-mediated dispersal is epidemiologically relevant, underscoring the importance of leveraging human mobility networks for building better biosecurity systems.

The authors' abstract, as published at the source. Journal of The Royal Society Interface, 2026 · DOI ↗