Asia & the Pacific Policy Studies· 2026Q2
Effects of Foreign Aid on Asia–Pacific Total Fertility Rates
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- 2026year
Short summary
Foreign aid affects total fertility rates (TFRs) in the Asia-Pacific differently based on a country's baseline fertility and economic conditions, with education/health aid increasing TFR in low/medium fertility nations, population/reproductive health aid decreasing it in low fertility nations, and transport aid increasing it in medium fertility nations.
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Key points
- Education and health aid increase TFR in low/medium fertility Asia-Pacific countries.
- Population and reproductive health aid decrease TFR in low fertility settings.
- Transportation aid increases TFR exclusively in medium fertility settings.
- Aid's demographic effects are moderated by economic growth and labor market uncertainty.
AI-generated from the title and abstract; the full text is not read.
Abstract
ABSTRACT Amid persistently declining and uneven fertility trends across the Asia–Pacific, whether foreign aid actively shapes regional fertility behaviour remains an open empirical question. This study investigates the net effects of sector‐specific foreign aid on total fertility rates (TFRs) across 35 developing Asia–Pacific countries during 2002–2023. Utilising a quantile regression approach, we show that the demographic effects of aid depend strongly on a recipient nationʼs baseline fertility and macroeconomic environment. In low‐ and medium‐fertility settings, broad education and health aid function as household resource subsidies that relax budget constraints, shifting the quantity–quality trade‐off towards child quantity. By contrast, population and reproductive health aid reduces fertility in low‐fertility settings. Transportation aid, meanwhile, acts as a structural facilitator that increases TFR exclusively in medium‐fertility settings. These dynamics are heavily moderated by economic growth and labour market uncertainty. Overall, our findings suggest that foreign aid architecture in the Asia–Pacific should be counter‐cyclical and demographically calibrated.
The authors' abstract, as published at the source. Asia & the Pacific Policy Studies, 2026 · DOI ↗
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Field: Development
DevelopmentSocial Sciences