Perspectives on Psychological Science· 2017Q1
Choosing Prediction Over Explanation in Psychology: Lessons From Machine Learning
- 2,013citations
- Q1SCImago
- 2017year
Short summary
Psychology's historical focus on explaining causal mechanisms, exemplified by controlled experiments, has resulted in theories with limited predictive accuracy. Machine learning techniques can shift the field towards prediction, ultimately enhancing behavioral understanding.
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Key points
- Psychology traditionally prioritizes explaining causal mechanisms over predicting behavior.
- The focus on explanation has resulted in theories with limited or unknown predictive accuracy.
- Machine learning offers principles and tools to enhance psychology's predictive capabilities.
- Shifting focus to prediction can lead to greater overall understanding of behavior.
AI-generated from the title and abstract; the full text is not read.
Abstract
Psychology has historically been concerned, first and foremost, with explaining the causal mechanisms that give rise to behavior. Randomized, tightly controlled experiments are enshrined as the gold standard of psychological research, and there are endless investigations of the various mediating and moderating variables that govern various behaviors. We argue that psychology's near-total focus on explaining the causes of behavior has led much of the field to be populated by research programs that provide intricate theories of psychological mechanism but that have little (or unknown) ability to predict future behaviors with any appreciable accuracy. We propose that principles and techniques from the field of machine learning can help psychology become a more predictive science. We review some of the fundamental concepts and tools of machine learning and point out examples where these concepts have been used to conduct interesting and important psychological research that focuses on predictive research questions. We suggest that an increased focus on prediction, rather than explanation, can ultimately lead us to greater understanding of behavior.
The authors' abstract, as published at the source. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 2017 · DOI ↗
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Field: Experimental and Cognitive Psychology
Experimental and Cognitive PsychologyPsychology