Geophysical Research Letters· 2026Q1
Impacts of Sea Surface Temperature Warming Pattern Biases on Tropical Cyclone Activity and Hazard
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- Q1SCImago
- 2026year
Short summary
Correcting biases in climate models' simulation of sea surface temperature (SST) warming patterns significantly alters tropical cyclone (TC) activity predictions, increasing North Atlantic TCs and decreasing South Pacific TCs compared to biased models.
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Key points
- Climate models exhibit a bias of greater warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific compared to the west.
- This SST warming bias leads to a reduced zonal SST gradient and weakened Walker circulation.
- Bias-corrected simulations show a strengthened zonal SST gradient, increasing North Atlantic TC frequency and hazards.
- The bias-corrected model also suppresses TC activity in the South Pacific compared to biased models.
AI-generated from the title and abstract; the full text is not read.
Abstract
Abstract Most climate models simulate greater warming in the equatorial eastern Pacific than in the west under historical forcing, resulting in a reduced zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradient and a weakened Walker circulation. This contrasts with observed trends and highlights a persistent model–observation discrepancy with far‐reaching impacts on regional climate extremes. The authors' previous work showed that reducing mean‐state biases in a coupled model yields SST trends more consistent with observations. Here, we downscale tropical cyclones (TCs) from these simulations and find that a strengthened zonal SST gradient is associated with increased TC frequency and hazards in the North Atlantic and suppresses activity in the South Pacific. In future projections, both biased and bias‐corrected models simulate relative eastern Pacific warming, yet their TC responses differ regionally, with the bias‐corrected model projecting greater TC activity and hazards over the North Atlantic.
The authors' abstract, as published at the source. Geophysical Research Letters, 2026 · DOI ↗
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Field: Atmospheric Science
Atmospheric ScienceEarth and Planetary Sciences