American Economic Journal Macroeconomics· 2012Q1
Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century
- 2,231citations
- Q1SCImago
- 2012year
Short summary
Higher temperatures significantly reduce economic growth in poorer countries, potentially impacting growth rates and not just output levels.
AI-generated from the title and abstract; the full text is not read.
Key points
- Higher temperatures reduce economic growth in poor countries.
- The impact may affect growth rates, not just output levels.
- Effects extend to agricultural and industrial output, and political stability.
- Analysis uses historical temperature fluctuations within countries.
AI-generated from the title and abstract; the full text is not read.
Abstract
This paper uses historical fluctuations in temperature within countries to identify its effects on aggregate economic outcomes. We find three primary results. First, higher temperatures substantially reduce economic growth in poor countries. Second, higher temperatures may reduce growth rates, not just the level of output. Third, higher temperatures have wide-ranging effects, reducing agricultural output, industrial output, and political stability. These findings inform debates over climate's role in economic development and suggest the possibility of substantial negative impacts of higher temperatures on poor countries. (JEL E23, O13, Q54, Q56)
The authors' abstract, as published at the source. American Economic Journal Macroeconomics, 2012 · DOI ↗
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Field: Demography
DemographySocial Sciences