Estimating avoided fossil fuel emissions from U.S. woody biomass energy use, 1949–2024

Abstract

Understanding fossil fuel displacement benefits of wood energy use is essential for tracking national forest-sector sustainability metrics. Using a cradle-to-gate life cycle assessment (LCA) approach, this study presents a transparent and replicable framework to estimate the avoided GHG emissions associated with wood energy use across the residential, commercial, industrial, and electric power sectors from 1949 to 2024. The results show wood energy use is estimated to have cumulatively avoided 13,545 million tonnes CO 2 e, and 111 to 243 million tonnes CO 2 e annually between 1949 and 2024, representing about 2.5 to 3% of total U.S. annual CO 2 e emissions between 1990 and 2022. The magnitude and temporal pattern of avoided emissions over the years reflect the combined influence of shifts in sectoral wood energy usage and fossil fuel mixes. For instance, residential wood energy share declined by 47%, in 2024 while industrial, electric-power, and commercial shares increased by 37, 8.5, and 2.5%, respectively, relative to 1949. Over this same period, the U.S. energy system transitioned from a coal-dominated fossil-fuel mix toward increasing reliance on natural gas and petroleum products. Despite limitations such as proportional fossil-fuel displacement assumptions, lack of facility level fuel-use data, and fixed life cycle emission factors, the transparent and replicable LCA-based framework presented in the study enhance understanding of wood energy's role in national carbon-mitigation efforts. It also directly supports U.S. forest sector sustainability reporting under Montréal Process Criterion 5, Indicator 5.24, which addresses avoided fossil fuel carbon emissions by using forest biomass for energy.

The authors' abstract, as published at the source. Biomass and Bioenergy, 2026 · DOI ↗