Children at the Frontline of Climate Change: A Vulnerability-Based Assessment of Climate Impacts on Children in Afghanistan

Abstract

Background: Afghanistan ranks among the world's most climate-vulnerable nations, yet rigorous, peer-reviewed analysis of climate change impacts specifically on children has remained severely underexplored. Children in Afghanistan face a convergence of acute physiological vulnerability, structural deprivation, governance failure, and compounding humanitarian crises that render them disproportionately exposed to climate hazards including drought, extreme temperatures, flash flooding, and food insecurity. Methods: This study employs a systematic integrative review combining scoping review methodology with secondary vulnerability analysis. A total of 323 records were identified across PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, Google Scholar, and major institutional repositories; 145 sources met inclusion criteria (peer-reviewed studies, institutional reports, and official datasets published between 2018 and 2025 that contain empirical data on children in Afghanistan). Vulnerability is operationalized across five interlinked dimensions: biophysical exposure, nutritional and health status, water and sanitation access, educational continuity, and social protection. A Child-Centered Climate Vulnerability Index for Afghanistan (CCVI-Af) is developed and pillar weights are justified against established global indices. Results: Afghanistan registered the highest absolute number of children displaced by climate disasters globally in 2023 (n = 747,094). Newborns face a projected 5.3-times greater drought exposure across their lifetimes compared with individuals currently aged 60. As of 2024, approximately 7.8 million children faced crisis-level food insecurity. An estimated 875,000 children under five required treatments for severe acute malnutrition, while stunting prevalence was 45.0% (95% CI: 43.2–46.8%). Climate-induced water scarcity affected 67% of households, up from 48% in 2021—a 39% deterioration in two years. Compound gender-climate vulnerability has contributed to a child marriage rate of 28.7% and the educational exclusion of over 2.2 million girls. Conclusions: Afghanistan constitutes one of the most extreme intersections of climate vulnerability and child rights deprivation in the world. This article proposes the CCVI-Af as a sub-nationally applicable, gender-disaggregated vulnerability measurement framework and advances a five-pillar policy framework for child-centered climate adaptation. Structural exclusion from international climate finance mechanisms represents a critical, addressable barrier requiring urgent engagement from the global community.

The authors' abstract, as published at the source. Global Decarbonisation, 2026 · DOI ↗