Scientific Reports· 2026Q1
Contrasting responses to climate change in two Dianthus species of the Irano-Anatolian biodiversity hotspot
- 0citations
- Q1SCImago
- 2026year
Short summary
Ecological niche models predict severe habitat contraction (up to 60%) for Dianthus floribundus by late-century under climate change, while Dianthus szowitsianus is projected to expand its range by over 50%.
AI-generated from the title and abstract; the full text is not read.
Key points
- Dianthus floribundus is predicted to lose up to 60% of its habitat by late-century due to climate change.
- Dianthus szowitsianus is projected to gain over 50% in suitable habitat under future climate scenarios.
- Annual mean temperature and temperature seasonality are the primary climate drivers influencing species distribution.
- Current protected areas may not adequately safeguard the future habitats of these endemic species.
AI-generated from the title and abstract; the full text is not read.
Abstract
The Irano-Anatolian biodiversity hotspot harbors exceptional plant richness and endemism but faces severe threats from climate change. I used MaxEnt-based ecological niche models to evaluate the current and future distributions of two closely related species, Dianthus floribundus and Dianthus szowitsianus . Models were projected for mid-century (2041–2070) and late-century (2071–2100) under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Temperature-related predictors, particularly annual mean temperature (bio1) and temperature seasonality (bio4), were the dominant drivers, yet the species showed markedly different responses to future climates. D. floribundus , characterized by a narrow thermal niche, is predicted to undergo severe habitat contraction (up to 60%) and pronounced elevational and latitudinal shifts toward northern high-elevation refugia, consistent with the “escalator to extinction” paradigm for cold-adapted mountain taxa. In contrast, D. szowitsianus displayed a broader modeled climatic suitability, maintaining most of its core range while expanding into newly suitable habitats, with projected gains exceeding 50%. These asymmetric outcomes highlight the species-specific nature of climate change impacts even among closely related endemics and forecast a decoupling of historical assemblages, with potential consequences for montane community structure and species interactions. Moreover, the reduction of overlap between the two species and the limited representation of persistent habitats within current protected areas underscore the urgent need for forward-looking conservation strategies. My findings emphasize that conserving montane biodiversity in global hotspots requires species-focused vulnerability assessments, identification of future refugia, and adaptive management frameworks to mitigate differential risks and preserve endemic diversity under climate change.
The authors' abstract, as published at the source. Scientific Reports, 2026 · DOI ↗
Continue with a free account
Ask the paper: 3 free questions a day about this paper; save it, get its citation, new summaries every day for your field. Takeaways are Premium.
Continue free on the webSign in with Google or Apple; no card needed. You come back to this paper.
On your phone:
Ecological ModelingEnvironmental Science