Geophysical Research Letters· 2026Q1
Evaluation‐Constrained Projections Reveal a Potentially Navigable Arctic by the 2030s
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- Q1SCImago
- 2026year
Short summary
Arctic Ocean navigation, specifically for vessels without ice class, could become possible by the 2030s, with up to six navigable months annually by the end of the century under high-emission scenarios, according to new projections that constrain climate models using observational data.
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Key points
- A 'potentially navigable Arctic' (PNA) is defined as >80% of the Arctic Ocean north of 60°N having sea ice thickness <0.15 m.
- Evaluation-based model selection schemes, using satellite, airborne, reanalysis, and in situ data, were developed to constrain CMIP6 projections.
- Constrained models project PNA conditions to occur by the 2030s under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.
- Navigable months are projected to reach four by the end of the century under SSP2-4.5 and six under SSP5-8.5.
AI-generated from the title and abstract; the full text is not read.
Abstract
Abstract The rapid decline in Arctic sea ice thickness (SIT) is reshaping Arctic navigation prospects. However, large uncertainties in climate model skill hinder robust projections of future navigability. Here we evaluate SIT simulated by the CMIP6 using satellite, airborne, reanalysis, and in situ data sets across freezing and melting seasons. To better constrain projections, we develop two evaluation‐based model selection schemes. We introduce the climatological concept of a potentially navigable Arctic (PNA), defined as a state in which more than 80% of the Arctic Ocean north of 60°N exhibits SIT below 0.15 m, making most of the Arctic Ocean potentially navigable for vessels with no ice class. Compared to conventional multi‐model mean, evaluation‐based schemes project thinner SIT and earlier navigability. Under both SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios, PNA conditions are projected to occur in the 2030s, with the number of navigable months reaching four and six by the end of the century, respectively.
The authors' abstract, as published at the source. Geophysical Research Letters, 2026 · DOI ↗
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Field: Sociology and Political Science
Sociology and Political ScienceSocial Sciences