The Journal of Finance· 2026Q1
Do Experimental Asset Market Results Replicate? High‐Powered Preregistered Replications of 17 Key Results
- 2citations
- Q1SCImago
- 2026year
Short summary
Only 3 of 14 statistically significant results from 4 prominent experimental asset market studies replicated in a large-scale preregistered effort (166 markets, 1,544 participants). Findings on emotions, self-control, and gender differences failed replication, while experience reducing bubbles and cognitive skills explaining trading success were confirmed.
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Key points
- 17 key results from 4 prominent experimental asset market studies were tested for replication.
- New data were collected from 166 markets with 1,544 participants.
- Only 3 of 14 original statistically significant results were successfully replicated.
- Replication failed for findings on emotions, self-control, and gender differences in bubble formation.
- Replication succeeded for experience reducing bubbles and cognitive skills explaining trading success.
AI-generated from the title and abstract; the full text is not read.
Abstract
ABSTRACT Experimental asset markets provide a controlled approach to studying financial markets. We attempt to replicate 17 key results from four prominent studies, collecting new data from 166 markets with 1,544 participants. Only three of the 14 original results reported as statistically significant were successfully replicated. We fail to replicate findings on emotions, self‐control, and gender differences in bubble formation but confirm that experience reduces bubbles and cognitive skills explain trading success. Our study demonstrates the importance of replications in enhancing the credibility of scientific results in this field.
The authors' abstract, as published at the source. The Journal of Finance, 2026 · DOI ↗
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