Quantitative Assessment of Energy Security Risk in Countries and Regions: The State of Research and Prospects for Integration

Abstract

Energy security assessment must connect threats to supply and affordability with consequences for a country’s economy and population. This critical comparative review examines how quantitative approaches support that task and where integration can add value. A purposively selected baseline of 154 publications retrieved through Scopus and Web of Science, supplemented by targeted comparisons, was examined by scope, outcome, uncertainty, valuation, and decision use. Existing models connect energy carriers, infrastructure, economic responses, and protective actions. However, broad coverage, monetary valuation, and probability do not necessarily describe the same outcome. Nine baseline publications provide monetary distributional constructions, spanning different loss, payment, valuation, and strategy-cost accounts rather than comparable measures of total risk. The synthesis supports testing scenario-based models that produce a common monetary loss distribution, expressed as a loss-exceedance curve, within explicit boundaries and with justified scenario probabilities. A hypothetical example illustrates non-overlapping loss accounting, scenario integration, and protection of vulnerable users and critical services. Where probabilities cannot be defended, stress tests and robust decision comparisons remain informative. The research priority is to determine when integration improves estimates or protective choices, while preserving decomposition and information on consequences that monetary aggregation can obscure.

The authors' abstract, as published at the source. Energies, 2026 · DOI ↗