Quantitative Science Studies· 2026Q1
Great Expectations? Researchers in Germany are Optimistic about the Potential of Grant Lotteries
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- Q1SCImago
- 2026year
Short summary
German researchers are generally optimistic about grant lotteries, with optimism increasing with awareness of the debates and reviewer workload, but decreasing among more senior and experienced scientists.
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Key points
- Most German researchers are optimistic about grant lotteries.
- Optimism increases with awareness of grant peer review bias debates.
- Higher reviewer workload is linked to greater optimism about lotteries.
- Senior and experienced scientists are less optimistic about grant lotteries.
AI-generated from the title and abstract; the full text is not read.
Abstract
Abstract In this study I investigate researchers’ expectations towards the potential advantages of grant lotteries in a representative sample of scientists at German universities and higher education institutions provided by the Scientists Survey of the German Centre for Higher Education Research and Science Studies (DZHW). I describe the saliency of the two debates on bias in grant peer review and on grant lotteries, as well as researchers’ levels of experience with grant peer review. I use both descriptive statistics and analytical models to investigate which characteristics shape scientists’ relative grant lottery optimism. I find that experienced and more senior scientists are significantly less optimistic about grant lotteries. Saliency and reviewer workload are positively associated with optimism. I conclude that, even though saliency of the issue remains sparse, researchers are generally optimistic about grant lotteries, yet also aware of some of their potential disadvantages.
The authors' abstract, as published at the source. Quantitative Science Studies, 2026 · DOI ↗
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