Decision-ready foresight in the social sciences: A meso-level governance analysis of the DeflyCompass framework

Abstract

Foresight informs collective action not only through signal detection and modelling, but through the institutional processes by which uncertain evidence is interpreted, contested, authorized, and revised. This article reconstructs the meso-level evidential basis of decision-ready foresight in the DeflyCompass Framework (DCF) through a retrospective integrative synthesis of peer-reviewed studies from the cumulative DeflyCompass programme, distinguishing direct evidence, corroborative evidence, and architectural inference. Four bounded findings emerge: explicit criteria made trend delimitation traceable, 276 to 69 to 30 trends, with high rating convergence among evaluators but no direct validation of stakeholder viability; hybrid analysis broadened evidential coverage when heterogeneous procedures remained mutually checkable; classifying 55 institutions across 16 variables supported institutional singularity as a classificatory, not early-warning, problem; and a documented 24-professional process evidenced intervention and reconsideration. Originality lies in separating construct from evidence and specifying an auditable meso-level pathway. Practically, its artefacts and review points can be implemented independently; academically, the study frames end-to-end prospective validation as the next research task.

The authors' abstract, as published at the source. Social Sciences & Humanities Open, 2026 · DOI ↗