Flood simulation and early warning in the XiHanShui River Basin using HEC-HMS

Abstract

The Xihan River basin is located in the southern part of Gansu Province, where flood disasters occur frequently in summer and autumn, which easily pose significant risks to human life. In order to improve the accuracy of flood disaster predictions and early warnings, a flood model suitable for this region was constructed based on the HEC-HMS (Hydrologic Engineering Center's-hydrologic modeling system) model and used to determine the critical areal rainfall for flood disasters. Calibration of this model was performed using data of four flood events from May to October between 2020 and 2021, reserving data of two additional flood events for model validation. Using the calibrated HEC-HMS model, the critical areal rainfall was determined for the Pingluo and Tanjiaba hydrological stations in the basin through the model testing method. The results indicate that: (1) The stable infiltration rate of the XiHanShui River Basin was between 0.06 and 0.10 mm/h, with runoff concentration times primarily varying from 22.5 to 24.1 hours, a direct runoff storage coefficient was 0.2 hours, and a base flow index decay constant seted at 0.03 hours. (2) During the calibration and validation periods, the average peak flow relative error was 7.56%, the average runoff volume relative error was 14.76%, the average peak occurrence time difference was -0.5 hours, and the Nash efficiency coefficient was 0.769. (3) The warning areal rainfall for the Pingluo and Tanjiaba hydrological stations were 108.1mm and 128.5mm, and the guaranteed areal rainfall were 230.8mm and 184.6mm. The HEC-HMS model demonstrated high applicability and accuracy in simulating flood events in the XiHanShui River Basin, providing technical support for hydrological research and operational applications in the region.

The authors' abstract, as published at the source. Climate Research, 2026 · DOI ↗