Racial Disparities in Federal Sentencing: Evidence from Drug Mandatory Minimums

Abstract

Abstract I study racial disparities in the criminal justice system by analysing abnormal bunching in the distribution of crack-cocaine amounts used in federal sentencing. I compare cases sentenced before and after the Fair Sentencing Act, a 2010 law that changed the 10-year mandatory minimum threshold for crack-cocaine from 50 g to 280 g. First, I find that after 2010, there is a sharp increase in the fraction of cases sentenced at 280 g (the point that now triggers a 10-year mandatory minimum), and that this increase is disproportionately large for black and Hispanic offenders. I then explore several possible explanations for the observed racial disparities, including racial discrimination that occurs after entry into the criminal justice system. I analyse data from multiple stages in the criminal justice system and find that the increased bunching for minority offenders is driven by prosecutorial discretion, specifically as used by about 20–30% of prosecutors. Moreover, the fraction of cases at 280 g falls in 2013 when evidentiary standards become stricter. Finally, the racial disparity in the increase cannot be explained by differences in education, sex, age, criminal history, seized drug amount, or other elements of the crime, but it can be largely explained by a measure of state-level racial animus. These results shed light on the role of prosecutorial discretion and racial discrimination as causes of racial disparities in sentencing.

The authors' abstract, as published at the source. The Review of Economic Studies, 2026 · DOI ↗