Journal of Political Institutions and Political Economy· 2026Q1
The security imperative: how crime conditions the electoral effects of inequality in Latin America
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- 2026year
Short summary
Crime amplifies inequality's effect on voting, shifting support from left parties (low crime) to right parties (high crime) in Latin American executive elections (1990-2018).
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Key points
- A formal model demonstrates that crime conditions the relationship between inequality and voting.
- In high-crime environments, inequality increases support for right-wing parties.
- In low-crime environments, inequality increases support for leftist parties.
- Empirical data from Latin American executive elections (1990-2018) supports the model's predictions.
- Survey evidence confirms these patterns at the individual voter level.
AI-generated from the title and abstract; the full text is not read.
Abstract
Crime and income inequality rank among the most important challenges in Latin America, but the authors know little about how they jointly shape election outcomes. The authors develop a formal model in which crime conditions the effect of inequality on voting behavior. At low levels of crime, inequality raises support for leftist parties. Yet when crime is high, it increases support for rightist parties emphasizing law enforcement policies aligned with voters’ security concerns. Using data for executive elections in Latin America (1990–2018), the authors find that inequality raises support for right-wing parties in high-crime environments, but not for leftist parties when crime is low. A case study of Mexico at the subnational level reveals a similar conditional pattern. The authors also present survey evidence supporting key implications of the theory at the individual level. These findings suggest that the perennial security imperative often comes first when inequality and crime are high.
The authors' abstract, as published at the source. Journal of Political Institutions and Political Economy, 2026 · DOI ↗
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Field: Sociology and Political Science
Sociology and Political ScienceSocial Sciences