Theory and Society· 2026Q1
Causal inference from a single treated state: a peer review of Lee et al. (2024) and the exchange that followed
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- Q1SCImago
- 2026year
Short summary
A peer review finds the statistical defenses of Lee et al. (2024), which claimed anti-transgender laws increased TGNB youth suicide attempts by 7-72%, are incorrect, rendering the reported uncertainty invalid.
AI-generated from the title and abstract; the full text is not read.
Key points
- Lee et al. (2024) claimed anti-transgender laws increased TGNB youth suicide attempts by 7-72%.
- The largest estimates in Lee et al. (2024) relied on a single treated state, Idaho.
- This peer review finds the statistical defenses of Lee et al. (2024) are incorrect.
- The single-treated-cluster setting invalidates the reported uncertainty.
- A key randomization inference analysis was never conducted.
AI-generated from the title and abstract; the full text is not read.
Abstract
Lee et al. (2024) report that state-level anti-transgender laws caused increases of 7–72% in past-year suicide attempts among transgender and non-binary (TGNB) young people. A Matters Arising (Cohn et al., 2026) showed that the paper’s largest estimates derive from a single treated state, Idaho; the authors’ reply (Lee et al., 2026) defended the design, and the format permits no further response. This peer review shows that the reply’s principal statistical defenses are incorrect; that the single-treated-cluster setting renders the paper’s reported uncertainty invalid rather than merely fragile, and that the decisive analysis — randomization inference with a correction for group-size heteroskedasticity — was never conducted; and that several design problems independent of the single-state issue remain unaddressed by the main study or the follow-ups. The remedies are specified and are implementable, quite possibly with the data the authors possess.
The authors' abstract, as published at the source. Theory and Society, 2026 · DOI ↗
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Field: History and Philosophy of Science
History and Philosophy of ScienceArts and Humanities