Applied Sciences· 2026Q2
The 2025 South Aegean Sea Seismic Swarm Activity in Natural Time and the Generalized Gutenberg–Richter Law
- 0citations
- Q2SCImago
- 2026year
Short summary
Natural time analysis (NTA) identified criticality preceding all M ≥ 5 earthquakes during the 2025 South Aegean Sea seismic swarm, and a generalized Gutenberg–Richter law, compatible with Tsallis statistics, successfully modeled the swarm's frequency-magnitude distribution, enabling nowcasting that predicted no M > 6.5 earthquakes.
AI-generated from the title and abstract; the full text is not read.
Key points
- Natural time analysis (NTA) detected criticality preceding all M ≥ 5 earthquakes in the 2025 South Aegean Sea seismic swarm.
- A generalized Gutenberg–Richter law, based on Tsallis nonextensive statistical mechanics, accurately modeled the swarm's frequency-magnitude distribution.
- Earthquake nowcasting using these methods predicted no M > 6.5 events during the South Aegean swarm.
- The methodology was also successfully applied to a 1980 swarm in Japan's Izu Islands region.
AI-generated from the title and abstract; the full text is not read.
Abstract
A strong seismic swarm occurred in the south Aegean Sea from late January to March 2025. Here, we apply natural time analysis (NTA), which can identify the critical stage before strong earthquakes, and find that all earthquakes of magnitude five or larger have been preceded by criticality. Moreover, we study the frequency–magnitude distribution of the seismic swarm and suggest a generalization of the Gutenberg–Richter law, which is compatible with Tsallis nonextensive statistical mechanics. This suggestion is tested for different earthquake catalogs available for this seismic swarm with successful results. Since NTA has already been applied to the strongest seismic swarm ever recorded in Japan, observed in 2000 in the Izu Islands region, we apply the present suggestions to the case of another swarm observed during June 1980, which was the strongest seismic swarm in the same region since 1979. The strongest magnitude class M7 earthquake of that swarm was also preceded by criticality in the NTA. Finally, we show that earthquake nowcasting could be applied to predict in advance that no earthquake exceeding magnitude 6.5 would occur during the south Aegean seismic swarm.
The authors' abstract, as published at the source. Applied Sciences, 2026 · DOI ↗
Continue with a free account
Ask the paper: 3 free questions a day about this paper; save it, get its citation, new summaries every day for your field. Takeaways are Premium.
Continue free on the webSign in with Google or Apple; no card needed. You come back to this paper.
On your phone:
GeophysicsEarth and Planetary Sciences