Modeling and simulation of vulnerability cascading failures in engineering project organizations based on complex networks

Abstract

Purpose Frequent construction safety accidents are often attributed to external risks, whereas the internal organizational vulnerability (OV) in engineering projects and their cascading failures are overlooked, causing a critical managerial blind spot. This study aims to systematically analyze the transmission process of OV in engineering projects to enhance project safety performance. Design/methodology/approach This study employs text mining to identify OVs of key stakeholders from engineering accident investigation reports. Next, by integrating social network analysis with the Delphi method, it develops the OV network and cascading failure model and simulates four attack scenarios. Finally, taking maximum failure as a benchmark, the study identifies key propagation nodes and paths. Findings The results indicate that OV networks experience the most severe failures under degree-based attacks. Specifically, the failure of chief supervision engineers to fulfill their duties emerges as a primary trigger of cascading failure, while ineffective hazard inspection and identification and weak supervision of policy implementation by government agencies amplify OV propagation. Moreover, the owner’s inadequate contractual governance of safety responsibilities plays a key mediating role in OV transmission. Originality/value This study innovatively integrates text mining techniques, complex network analysis and the Delphi method to construct a cascading failure model of OV, revealing the OV transmission process among project stakeholders under the maximum failure scenario. The findings not only enrich the theoretical understanding of OV transmission mechanisms but also offer new managerial insights for mitigating cascading risks and enhancing project safety performance.

The authors' abstract, as published at the source. Engineering Construction & Architectural Management, 2026 · DOI ↗