Spatiotemporal Trends and Drivers of PM2.5 Concentrations in Shandong Province from 2014 to 2023 Under Socioeconomic Transition

Abstract

China’s rapid economic growth since its reform and opening-up has come at the cost of worsening atmospheric pollution. This study investigates the spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanisms of PM2.5 concentrations in Shandong province, a key industrial region, during 2014–2023, using comprehensive air quality monitoring, meteorological observations, and socioeconomic datasets. Through spatial analysis and geodetector methods, we identify that (1) The annual PM2.5 concentration decreases significantly by 50.9%; spatially, heterogeneity is observed with the western urban agglomeration experiencing more severe pollution, while the eastern coastal urban agglomeration exhibits better air quality. (2) Gravity model analysis shows that the centroids of PM2.5 pollution undergo distinct migration phases. (3) PM2.5 levels show a distinct seasonal pattern, peaking in winter at a level 143.7% higher than the summer average. (4) The meteorological driving factors are primarily air temperature (r = 0.511) and wind speed (r = −0.487), while the socioeconomic factors are tertiary industry production (r = −0.971), particulate matter emissions (r = 0.956), and sulfur dioxide emissions (r = 0.938). Concurrently, the combined effect of tertiary industry production and PM emissions account for 99.5% of PM2.5 variability. Notably, we validate an Environmental Kuznets Curve relationship (R2 = 0.805) between economic development and air quality improvement, demonstrating that clean production policy integration can reconcile environmental and economic objectives. These findings provide empirical evidence supporting circular economy strategies for air pollution mitigation in industrializing regions.

The authors' abstract, as published at the source. Toxics, 2025 · DOI ↗