Statistical papers - United Nations. Series A, Population and vital statistics report· 2014
World urbanization prospects
- 1,074citations
- 2014year
Short summary
United Nations urbanization projections may overestimate the global urban population by 19% (nearly one billion people) by 2030, particularly in developing countries.
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Key points
- UN urbanization projections may overestimate the global urban population by 19% by 2030.
- The UN's linear projection model is identified as a source of overestimation.
- Alternative projection using mobility transition theory and a polynomial model suggests lower figures.
- Overestimation is particularly pronounced in developing countries, potentially exceeding 30% in Africa, India, and Oceania.
AI-generated from the title and abstract; the full text is not read.
Abstract
This paper proposes to critically examine the United Nations projections on urbanisation. Both the estimates of current trends based on national data and the method of projection are evaluated. The theory of mobility transition is used as an alternative hypothesis. Projections are proposed using a polynomial model and compared to the UN projections, which are based on a linear model. The conclusion is that UN projections may overestimate the urban population for the year 2030 by almost one billion, or 19% in relative term. The overestimation would be particularly more pronounced for developing countries and may exceed 30% in Africa, India and Oceania.
The authors' abstract, as published at the source. Statistical papers - United Nations. Series A, Population and vital statistics report, 2014 · DOI ↗
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Field: Demography
DemographySocial Sciences