Science· 2014Q1
World population stabilization unlikely this century
- 1,433citations
- Q1SCImago
- 2014year
Short summary
Contrary to previous literature, world population is unlikely to stop growing this century, with an 80% probability of reaching 9.6 to 12.3 billion by 2100.
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Key points
- World population unlikely to stabilize this century.
- 80% probability of population reaching 9.6-12.3 billion by 2100.
- Significant population increase expected in Africa.
- Working-age to older person ratio likely to decline globally.
AI-generated from the title and abstract; the full text is not read.
Abstract
The United Nations (UN) recently released population projections based on data until 2012 and a Bayesian probabilistic methodology. Analysis of these data reveals that, contrary to previous literature, the world population is unlikely to stop growing this century. There is an 80% probability that world population, now 7.2 billion people, will increase to between 9.6 billion and 12.3 billion in 2100. This uncertainty is much smaller than the range from the traditional UN high and low variants. Much of the increase is expected to happen in Africa, in part due to higher fertility rates and a recent slowdown in the pace of fertility decline. Also, the ratio of working-age people to older people is likely to decline substantially in all countries, even those that currently have young populations.
The authors' abstract, as published at the source. Science, 2014 · DOI ↗
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Field: Demography
DemographySocial Sciences