Winner or Loser? Opening to Export Markets and Gender‐Specific Labour Market Adjustments

Abstract

ABSTRACT This paper examines the effects of a positive export shock on gender‐specific labour market outcomes using nationally representative household and firm‐level data from Vietnam. We exploit exogenous variation in provincial exposure to tariff reductions induced by the U.S.–Vietnam Bilateral Trade Agreement. We find that opening to export markets is associated with stronger wage growth for men than for women, widening the estimated gender wage gap, although we find little evidence of gender differences in working‐hour responses. Opening to export markets is also associated with workers' transitions out of unpaid family work and into formal employment. However, these responses do not differ significantly between women and men. By contrast, women are significantly more likely than men to transition into non‐manual occupations in provinces more exposed to U.S. tariff reductions. Moreover, a positive gender composition effect provides an additional channel through which trade shapes gender disparities. As complementary evidence, the firm‐level analysis shows stronger growth in female employment in trade‐exposed regions, while female workers are more concentrated in larger firms that experience lower wage growth. Our findings show that increased export market access can generate divergent effects along the employment and wage margins, helping reconcile conflicting results in the existing literature and highlighting the importance of heterogeneity in understanding the gendered consequences of global integration.

The authors' abstract, as published at the source. World Economy, 2026 · DOI ↗