Nature Aging· 2026Q1
Reframing the epidemiological transition as increasing returns to tackling aging-related diseases
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- 2026year
Short summary
Aging-related diseases, now the largest part of the global disease burden, exhibit 'increasing returns,' meaning tackling them becomes more attractive as progress is made.
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Key points
- Global life expectancy rose from 58 to over 73 years since 1973, with the 65+ population doubling to 10%.
- Diseases are statistically clustered into infant, early-adult, later-adult, and aging-related groups.
- Aging-related diseases represent the largest global disease burden and the greatest lifetime risk for newborns.
- Aging-related diseases show increasing returns: progress in reducing them makes further gains more appealing.
AI-generated from the title and abstract; the full text is not read.
Abstract
Global life expectancy has risen since 1973 from 58 to over 73 years, while the share of people aged 65 years and older has doubled to 10% and is projected to reach 21% by 2073. This shift is linked to an epidemiological transition from infectious to chronic disease. Here, using Global Burden of Disease data, we reframe this transition by statistically grouping diseases on the basis of their impact over the life cycle, yielding four clusters: infant, early-adult, later-adult and aging-related. We show aging-related diseases are the largest part of the current global disease burden and the greatest lifetime burden for a newborn, even in low-income countries. Aging-related diseases possess two distinctive properties: a tight link between mortality and morbidity, and increasing returns, whereby reductions in their prevalence makes further gains even more attractive. The implications of this recasting of the epidemiological transition for health systems and aging research are discussed.
The authors' abstract, as published at the source. Nature Aging, 2026 · DOI ↗
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Field: Demography
DemographySocial Sciences