IEEE Transactions on Power Systems· 2012Q1
Probabilistic Power Flow Studies for Transmission Systems With Photovoltaic Generation Using Cumulants
- 371citations
- Q1SCImago
- 2012year
Short summary
A cumulant-based probabilistic power flow algorithm, considering correlations between PV resources, accurately models PV generation uncertainty's impact on transmission systems, matching Monte Carlo simulations.
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Key points
- A cumulant-based probabilistic power flow algorithm is applied to evaluate PV generation uncertainty's impact on transmission systems.
- The algorithm avoids convolution calculations and considers correlations between adjacent PV resources.
- A new probabilistic model for PV generation is developed based on environmental conditions.
- Results from the cumulant-based approach align with Monte Carlo simulations on a 2497-bus WECC system model.
AI-generated from the title and abstract; the full text is not read.
Abstract
This paper applies a probabilistic power flow (PPF) algorithm to evaluate the influence of photovoltaic (PV) generation uncertainty on transmission system performance. PV generation has the potential to cause a significant impact on power system reliability in the near future. A cumulant-based PPF algorithm suitable for large systems is used to avoid convolution calculations. Correlation among input random variables is considered. Specifically correlation between adjacent PV resources are considered. Three types of approximation expansions based on cumulants, namely the Gram-Charlier expansion, the Edgeworth expansion, and the Cornish-Fisher expansion, are compared, and their properties, advantages, and deficiencies are discussed. Additionally, a novel probabilistic model of PV generation is developed to obtain the probability density function (PDF) of the PV generation production based on the environmental conditions. The proposed approaches with the three expansions are compared with Monte Carlo simulations (MCS) with results for a 2497-bus representation of the Arizona area of the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) system.
The authors' abstract, as published at the source. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 2012 · DOI ↗
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Field: Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality
Safety, Risk, Reliability and QualityEngineering