PLoS ONE· 2020Q1
Data-based analysis, modelling and forecasting of the COVID-19 outbreak
- 966citations
- Q1SCImago
- 2020year
Short summary
A Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Dead (SIRD) model estimated the basic reproduction number (R0) for COVID-19 in Hubei, China, to be ~2.6 based on official case counts and ~2 considering a scenario with 20x infected and 40x recovered cases. Forecasts predicted up to 180,000 cumulative infections and over 2,700 deaths by February 29, 2020.
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Modeling and SimulationMathematics