Modeling and Simulation papers
Pofolia’s corpus holds 72 papers from Modeling and Simulation (2013–2026), each with a short summary. Below, the 20 most-cited, then the most recently added.
At a glance
- Most cited: Fractional Differential Equations (2025, 20,501 citations).
- The 20 papers listed have 87,689 citations between them.
- 14 of the 15 with a known journal quartile appeared in a Q1 journal.
- 10 have a free full text (open access).
- Most frequent journals: Science, Annals of Internal Medicine, PubMed.
- Published between 2015 and 2025.
Most cited
Ranked by citation count. Because citations accumulate over time, this list naturally leans towards work published a few years ago; for where the field is now, see “recently added”. How to read the signals
Fractional Differential Equations
2025 · FWCI 152.67 · 20,501 citations · Open access
Fractional calculus, using integrals and derivatives of fractional order, is gaining traction for modeling phenomena with memory effects, offering superior tools for time-dependent effects compared to traditional integer-order calculus.
WHO Declares COVID-19 a Pandemic.
PubMed · 2020 · FWCI 207.35 · 7,772 citations
The World Health Organization (WHO) officially declared the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak a global pandemic on March 11, 2020.
The Incubation Period of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) From Publicly Reported Confirmed Cases: Estimation and Application
Annals of Internal Medicine · 2020 · Q1 · SJR 2.00 · FWCI 195.32 · 6,600 citations
The median incubation period for COVID-19 is estimated at 5.1 days, with 97.5% of symptomatic cases appearing within 11.5 days of infection, based on 181 confirmed cases outside Hubei province.
Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis
The Lancet Infectious Diseases · 2020 · Q1 · SJR 5.00 · FWCI 121.63 · 4,168 citations · Open access
This analysis estimates the COVID-19 case fatality ratio in China to be 1.38%, significantly higher in older age groups, reaching 13.4% for those 80 and older. The overall infection fatality ratio was estimated at 0.66%.
Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2)
Science · 2020 · Q1 · SJR 10.00 · FWCI 129.65 · 4,097 citations
An estimated 86% of SARS-CoV-2 infections were undocumented before January 23, 2020, and these infections were responsible for 79% of documented cases, driving the virus's rapid global spread.
The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak
Science · 2020 · Q1 · SJR 10.00 · FWCI 112.17 · 4,014 citations · Open access
Travel restrictions from Wuhan on January 23, 2020, delayed COVID-19's progression in mainland China by only 3-5 days, but reduced international importations by nearly 80% by mid-February.
New fractional derivatives with nonlocal and non-singular kernel: Theory and application to heat transfer model
DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) · 2016 · FWCI 147.25 · 3,878 citations
A novel fractional derivative with a non-local and non-singular kernel has been introduced, offering a new mathematical tool for modeling complex phenomena.
Epidemic processes in complex networks
Reviews of Modern Physics · 2015 · Q1 · SJR 13.00 · FWCI 196.38 · 3,746 citations
This review synthesizes key findings and models for understanding epidemic spreading and social contagion within complex networks.
[The epidemiological characteristics of an outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus diseases (COVID-19) in China].
PubMed · 2020 · FWCI 120.84 · 3,552 citations
The COVID-19 epidemic spread rapidly across Mainland China within 30 days, originating from Hubei province.
The effect of human mobility and control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in China
Science · 2020 · Q1 · SJR 10.00 · FWCI 85.95 · 3,101 citations
Human mobility data accurately predicted COVID-19 spread across China early in the epidemic, but this correlation significantly weakened after control measures were implemented, leading to negative growth rates in most locations.
The Epidemiological Characteristics of an Outbreak of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Diseases (COVID-19) — China, 2020
China CDC Weekly · 2020 · Q2 · FWCI 97.17 · 3,073 citations · Open access
This paper provides an early descriptive analysis of COVID-19 cases in China up to February 11, 2020, detailing the rapid nationwide spread originating from Wuhan.
Isolation, quarantine, social distancing and community containment: pivotal role for old-style public health measures in the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak
Journal of Travel Medicine · 2020 · Q1 · SJR 1.00 · FWCI 83.60 · 2,841 citations · Open access
Historical public health measures like isolation, quarantine, and social distancing were crucial in controlling the 2003 SARS epidemic and are likely pivotal for managing the 2019-nCoV outbreak.
Feasibility of controlling COVID-19 outbreaks by isolation of cases and contacts
The Lancet Global Health · 2020 · Q1 · SJR 5.00 · FWCI 89.09 · 2,827 citations · Open access
A mathematical model suggests that isolating COVID-19 cases and tracing contacts can control outbreaks within 3 months, but success hinges on factors like initial case numbers, transmission rates, and speed of isolation.
Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period
Science · 2020 · Q1 · SJR 10.00 · FWCI 82.02 · 2,811 citations · Open access
SARS-CoV-2 is projected to become a recurrent seasonal virus, causing winter outbreaks similar to other human coronaviruses, even after the initial pandemic wave subsides.
Early dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study
The Lancet Infectious Diseases · 2020 · Q1 · SJR 5.00 · FWCI 82.04 · 2,665 citations · Open access
Mathematical modeling suggests that once at least four independently introduced cases occur in a location with similar transmission potential to Wuhan in early January 2020, there is a greater than 50% chance of sustained COVID-19 transmission.
Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship, Yokohama, Japan, 2020
Eurosurveillance · 2020 · Q1 · SJR 2.00 · FWCI 76.38 · 2,553 citations · Open access
Statistical modeling of the Diamond Princess cruise ship outbreak estimated that 17.9% of COVID-19 cases were asymptomatic, with most infections occurring before quarantine.
Prevalence of Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infection
Annals of Internal Medicine · 2020 · Q1 · SJR 2.00 · FWCI 71.72 · 2,466 citations
Asymptomatic individuals likely account for 40-45% of SARS-CoV-2 infections and can transmit the virus for over 14 days, potentially showing subclinical lung abnormalities.
A new Definition of Fractional Derivative without Singular Kernel
2015 · FWCI 86.07 · 2,441 citations
Researchers introduce a novel definition for fractional derivatives using a smooth, non-singular kernel, offering distinct representations for temporal and spatial variables.
The effect of control strategies to reduce social mixing on outcomes of the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China: a modelling study
The Lancet Public Health · 2020 · Q1 · SJR 8.00 · FWCI 72.62 · 2,316 citations · Open access
A modeling study projecting COVID-19 outcomes in Wuhan found that physical distancing measures, particularly a staggered return to work in early April, reduced median infections by over 92% by mid-2020 and 24% by end-2020.
Coronavirus Infections—More Than Just the Common Cold
JAMA · 2020 · Q1 · SJR 5.00 · FWCI 74.39 · 2,267 citations
Emerging pathogenic coronaviruses like SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, alongside the novel 2019-nCoV, represent a significant public health threat beyond common cold symptoms.
Recently added
Predictive spatial modeling of sociodemographic risk for COVID-19 mortality
BMC Public Health · 2026 · Q1 · SJR 1.00 · FWCI 4.98 · 1 citations
Geographically weighted random forest (GWRF) models reveal localized sociodemographic predictors of COVID-19 mortality, identifying patterns like obesity in specific areas that regional models miss.
The paradox of neglecting changes in behavior: How standard epidemic models misestimate both transmissibility and final epidemic size
PLoS Computational Biology · 2026 · Q1 · SJR 1.00 · FWCI 5.06 · 1 citations · Open access
Epidemic models that ignore behavioral changes consistently underestimate transmissibility (R0) while overestimating final epidemic size, leading to flawed public health policy. Models incorporating mortality-driven transmission reduction fit COVID-19 data better across 30 US locations and analytically proved this dual bias.
DQIS — Distributed Quorum-Based Independent Immune Surveillance: A Theoretical Framework for Byzantine Fault Tolerance for Multi-Channel Immune Surveillance
PubMed · 2026 · 1,341 citations
A new theoretical framework, DQIS (Distributed Quorum-Based Independent Immune Surveillance), is proposed for achieving Byzantine fault tolerance in multi-channel immune surveillance systems.
Inferring variant-specific effective reproduction numbers from combined case and sequencing data
eLife · 2026 · Q1 · SJR 3.00 · FWCI 4.98 · 34 citations
A new model jointly estimates variant-specific effective reproduction numbers (R_t) and frequencies using US case and sequence data (Jan 2021-Mar 2022), revealing consistent growth advantages for specific SARS-CoV-2 variants across locations.
Fractional Differential Equations
2025 · FWCI 152.67 · 20,501 citations · Open access
Fractional calculus, using integrals and derivatives of fractional order, is gaining traction for modeling phenomena with memory effects, offering superior tools for time-dependent effects compared to traditional integer-order calculus.
Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
The Lancet · 2024 · FWCI 293.06 · 974 citations
Global life expectancy at birth increased by 22.7 years from 1950-2021, but declined 1.6 years between 2019-2021 due to COVID-19, reversing long-term gains in 84% of countries.
The WHO estimates of excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic
Nature · 2022 · Q1 · SJR 19.00 · FWCI 121.12 · 1,063 citations · Open access
The WHO estimates 14.83 million excess deaths globally for 2020-2021, 2.74 times the 5.42 million reported COVID-19 deaths, revealing significant undercounting due to data limitations.
SARS-CoV-2 Transmission From People Without COVID-19 Symptoms
JAMA Network Open · 2021 · Q1 · SJR 3.00 · FWCI 93.11 · 1,113 citations · Open access
Over 50% of SARS-CoV-2 transmissions likely originate from individuals without COVID-19 symptoms, including those who never develop symptoms and those who are presymptomatic.
Journals in this field
The journals that publish most of this field’s papers. Quartile (Q1–Q4), SJR and h-index are from SCImago Journal Rank; “in this field” is how many of the journal’s pooled papers belong here. What is a Q1 journal? · What is the h-index?
| Journal | Quartile | SJR | h-index | In this field | Summaries |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Science | Q1 | 10.00 | 1433 | 11 | 268 |
| International Journal of Infectious Diseases | Q1 | 1.00 | 146 | 4 | 8 |
| The Lancet Public Health | Q1 | 8.00 | 123 | 3 | 13 |
| JAMA | Q1 | 5.00 | 818 | 3 | 114 |
| The Lancet Infectious Diseases | Q1 | 5.00 | 317 | 3 | 5 |
| Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America | Q1 | 3.00 | 929 | 3 | 110 |
| Eurosurveillance | Q1 | 2.00 | 143 | 3 | 5 |
| New England Journal of Medicine | Q1 | 18.00 | 1275 | 2 | 376 |
Every journal in Modeling and Simulation (Q1–Q4) →
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Open the appOther subfields in Mathematics
- Discrete Mathematics and Combinatorics
- Algebra and Number Theory
- Geometry and Topology
- Computational Mathematics
- Statistics and Probability
- Mathematical Physics
- Numerical Analysis
- Theoretical Computer Science
- Applied Mathematics