Scientific Reports· 2026Q1
Spatio-temporal dynamics, clustering, and hotspot evolution of reported foot-and-mouth disease outbreak burden in Nigeria, 2015–2025
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- Q1SCImago
- 2026year
Short summary
Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks in Nigeria show a concentrated burden, shifting from North Central to a persistent North West hotspot (Zamfara, Kebbi, Sokoto) by 2023, accounting for 71.3% of cases.
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Key points
- FMD outbreaks in Nigeria peaked in 2017 and 2021, with elevated reporting continuing through 2024.
- The geographic focus of FMD burden shifted from North Central dominance in 2017 to a persistent North West configuration by 2023.
- Zamfara, Kebbi, and Sokoto states emerged as a consolidated FMD hotspot, representing 71.3% of nationally reported outbreaks.
- Southern states consistently showed low FMD burden, forming persistent cold-spot structures.
AI-generated from the title and abstract; the full text is not read.
Abstract
Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is endemic in Nigeria, yet the national spatio-temporal structure of officially reported outbreaks remains poorly characterised. We analysed the temporal dynamics, clustering, and hotspot evolution of reported FMD outbreaks across Nigeria’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory from 2015 to 2025, using World Animal Health Information System records and exploratory spatial data analysis. Outbreak burden followed an episodic pattern, with major surges in 2017 and 2021. The 2021 peak was followed by sustained elevated reporting through 2024. Geographically, burden shifted from North Central dominance in 2017 to a persistent North West configuration by 2023, accounting for 71.3% of nationally reported outbreaks. Spatial autocorrelation analysis combining Global Moran’s I, LISA, and Gi* traced a transition from a low-burden fragmented baseline to a consolidated hotspot anchored on Zamfara, Kebbi, and Sokoto, alongside persistent cold-spot structures across southern states. Reported FMD burden in Nigeria was temporally uneven and spatially concentrated. The Zamfara-Kebbi-Sokoto belt warrants prioritisation for field investigation and veterinary deployment, while persistently low-burden states bordering confirmed high-burden zones require structured surveillance capacity assessment rather than passive monitoring.
The authors' abstract, as published at the source. Scientific Reports, 2026 · DOI ↗
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