American Journal of Agricultural Economics· 2026Q1
How land retirement programs affect crop production: Evidence from China's Grain for Green Program
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- 2026year
Short summary
China's Grain for Green Program, a large-scale land conservation initiative, unexpectedly increased total crop production by 10% while reducing cropland area, by intensifying inputs and improving microclimates on remaining land.
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Key points
- The Grain for Green Program reduced total cropland area.
- Total crop production increased by 10% despite reduced cropland.
- Increased production is linked to higher labor and fertilizer inputs.
- The program improved local microclimates and reduced weather stress on crops.
AI-generated from the title and abstract; the full text is not read.
Abstract
Abstract This paper evaluates the impact of one of the world's largest land conservation programs—China's Grain for Green Program—on crop production, and examines whether land retirement policies can balance ecological goals with food security objectives. By combining detailed county‐level crop production data with remote sensing data, our difference‐in‐differences estimates suggest that the program significantly reduced total cropland area but increased total crop production. This unexpected increase in production can be explained by the program's significant increase in labor input, fertilizer use, and multiple cropping on the remaining cropland. More importantly, we find that the program improved the local microclimate and substantially alleviated the damage of weather stress on crop production. Our findings suggest that, under certain institutional conditions, it is possible to adopt land‐use policy to protect the ecosystem without compromising food security.
The authors' abstract, as published at the source. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2026 · DOI ↗
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Field: Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and SystematicsAgricultural and Biological Sciences