Climate‐Driven Distribution Modeling of the Glacial Apollo Butterfly ( Parnassius glacialis ) for Biodiversity Conservation

Abstract

ABSTRACT Understanding how climate change affects insect distribution is critical for biodiversity conservation, particularly in the case of range‐restricted and ecologically sensitive species. The glacial Apollo, Parnassius glacialis (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae), is a high‐altitude butterfly of notable scientific and esthetic value, yet its ecological response to climate change remains poorly understood. Here, we model the current and future distribution of P. glacialis across China and identify key environmental drivers shaping its habitat. We developed an ensemble species distribution model using 45 occurrence records and 10 bioclimatic variables, integrating outputs from multiple algorithms to enhance predictive robustness. Temperature—particularly seasonal variation—emerged as the strongest determinant of habitat suitability, followed by precipitation. At present, suitable habitats are concentrated in northern, southwestern, and eastern China. However, projections under future climate scenarios reveal a marked reduction in suitable range, with the habitat centroid shifting to lower elevations in Hubei Province. The direction and extent of this shift vary among scenarios, highlighting the species' vulnerability to both climatic and socioeconomic trajectories. These findings raise urgent conservation concerns, suggesting that P. glacialis may face significant habitat loss and range contraction under projected climate conditions. We recommend the establishment of targeted protected areas, the integration of insect responses into climate adaptation policies, and the implementation of long‐term ecological monitoring. This study provides crucial insights into climate‐driven range shifts in high‐altitude butterflies and underscores the broader need for adaptive conservation strategies in a warming world.

The authors' abstract, as published at the source. Ecology and Evolution, 2026 · DOI ↗