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American Economic Journal Macroeconomics· 2013Q1

Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data

Rüdiger Bachmann, Steffen Elstner, Eric Sims

Short summary

Surprise increases in business uncertainty, measured by forecast disagreement, lead to significant, albeit temporary, reductions in production, with US data showing more persistent effects than German data.

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Field: General Economics, Econometrics and Finance

General Economics, Econometrics and FinanceEconomics, Econometrics and Finance