Research on cross-industry production based on system dynamics under major emergencies

Abstract

Purpose This study aims to investigate how supply chain disruptions caused by major public emergencies, such as geopolitical conflicts, affect firm performance and examines whether cross-industry production (CIP) can mitigate losses by repurposing capacity to produce contingency survival materials. Design/methodology/approach A three-echelon supply chain model – supplier, plant, distribution center – was developed using system dynamics. It simulates simultaneous disruptions in supply, capacity and demand. Performance is measured by cumulative profit and service level under different disruption scenarios and CIP capacity allocation rates. Findings Demand disruption can reduce the negative impact of capacity disruption, as lower downstream demand helps maintain service levels. CIP improves profitability under moderate disruptions but may temporarily lower service levels when resources are limited. Its success depends on raw material availability and plant conditions. Practical implications The research guides firms in emergency production and capacity planning. Plants should dynamically decide whether to implement CIP and allocate optimal capacity based on available resources and the severity of supply chain disruptions. Originality/value This study examines CIP through a system dynamics model under simultaneous supply, capacity and demand disruptions. It contributes to research on manufacturing flexibility and supply chain resilience by showing how firms can temporarily reallocate capacity beyond their core business to respond to emergency needs.

The authors' abstract, as published at the source. Journal of Modelling in Management, 2026 · DOI ↗