Science· 2020Q1
The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak
- 4,014citations
- Q1SCImago
- 2020year
Short summary
Travel restrictions from Wuhan on January 23, 2020, delayed COVID-19's progression in mainland China by only 3-5 days, but reduced international importations by nearly 80% by mid-February.
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Key points
- Wuhan travel ban delayed China's epidemic by 3-5 days.
- International COVID-19 importations reduced by nearly 80% by mid-February due to travel restrictions.
- 90% travel restrictions alone had a modest effect on epidemic trajectory.
- Combined travel restrictions and 50%+ community transmission reduction are needed for significant impact.
AI-generated from the title and abstract; the full text is not read.
Abstract
Motivated by the rapid spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in mainland China, we use a global metapopulation disease transmission model to project the impact of travel limitations on the national and international spread of the epidemic. The model is calibrated on the basis of internationally reported cases and shows that, at the start of the travel ban from Wuhan on 23 January 2020, most Chinese cities had already received many infected travelers. The travel quarantine of Wuhan delayed the overall epidemic progression by only 3 to 5 days in mainland China but had a more marked effect on the international scale, where case importations were reduced by nearly 80% until mid-February. Modeling results also indicate that sustained 90% travel restrictions to and from mainland China only modestly affect the epidemic trajectory unless combined with a 50% or higher reduction of transmission in the community.
The authors' abstract, as published at the source. Science, 2020 · DOI ↗
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Field: Modeling and Simulation
Modeling and SimulationMathematics