Evaluation transit-oriented development potential using GIS-MCDA: “a spatial framework for Greater Cairo”

Abstract

Abstract Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) is a sustainable planning approach that integrates land use and transportation to promote compact, accessible, and efficient urban growth. However, in rapidly urbanizing metropolitan contexts, TOD assessment is often centered on planned station areas, while dense and historically established districts receive less attention despite their relevance for retrofit-oriented intervention. Addressing this gap, the originality of this study lies in developing a highly granular, multi-scalar GIS-MCDA framework to assess TOD retrofit and readiness potential across 413 administrative units (shiyakha) in the Greater Cairo Region. This approach combines literature-informed and expert-validated socio-economic, land-use, and transport indicators into a composite TOD Index. The framework integrates spatial normalization, hybrid weighting, and multi-criteria aggregation to generate a fine-grained map of TOD readiness that captures local variations in urban form and accessibility. The results reveal pronounced spatial heterogeneity. Central districts such as Al-Sayeda Zainab, Bulaq, Azbakeya, Shubra, and Abdeen exhibit the highest TOD potential due to compact urban fabric, strong transit accessibility, and land-use diversity, whereas peripheral areas such as 15th May City, Tura, and Atfih show low suitability because of dispersed development, weaker infrastructure, and limited public transport coverage. The findings highlight the need to distinguish between consolidated districts requiring TOD retrofit and peripheral areas that demand longer-term structural transformation. Overall, the proposed framework offers a replicable decision-support tool to assist decision-makers and urban planners in prioritizing targeted interventions and infrastructure improvements, thereby guiding sustainable urban policy in rapidly growing metropolitan contexts.

The authors' abstract, as published at the source. Scientific Reports, 2026 · DOI ↗