Science· 2020Q1
Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2)
- 4,097citations
- Q1SCImago
- 2020year
Short summary
An estimated 86% of SARS-CoV-2 infections were undocumented before January 23, 2020, and these infections were responsible for 79% of documented cases, driving the virus's rapid global spread.
AI-generated from the title and abstract; the full text is not read.
Key points
- 86% of SARS-CoV-2 infections were undocumented before January 23, 2020.
- Undocumented infections were 55% as contagious per person as documented ones.
- Undocumented cases led to 79% of all documented infections.
- The high rate of asymptomatic spread explains the rapid geographic expansion.
AI-generated from the title and abstract; the full text is not read.
Abstract
Estimation of the prevalence and contagiousness of undocumented novel coronavirus [severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)] infections is critical for understanding the overall prevalence and pandemic potential of this disease. Here, we use observations of reported infection within China, in conjunction with mobility data, a networked dynamic metapopulation model, and Bayesian inference, to infer critical epidemiological characteristics associated with SARS-CoV-2, including the fraction of undocumented infections and their contagiousness. We estimate that 86% of all infections were undocumented [95% credible interval (CI): 82-90%] before the 23 January 2020 travel restrictions. The transmission rate of undocumented infections per person was 55% the transmission rate of documented infections (95% CI: 46-62%), yet, because of their greater numbers, undocumented infections were the source of 79% of the documented cases. These findings explain the rapid geographic spread of SARS-CoV-2 and indicate that containment of this virus will be particularly challenging.
The authors' abstract, as published at the source. Science, 2020 · DOI ↗
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Field: Modeling and Simulation
Modeling and SimulationMathematics