Science· 2020Q1
Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period
- 2,811citations
- Q1SCImago
- 2020year
Short summary
SARS-CoV-2 is projected to become a recurrent seasonal virus, causing winter outbreaks similar to other human coronaviruses, even after the initial pandemic wave subsides.
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Key points
- SARS-CoV-2 is predicted to evolve into a seasonal virus with recurring winter outbreaks.
- Social distancing measures may need to continue intermittently into 2022 to avoid overwhelming healthcare systems.
- Expanded critical care capacity and effective therapeutics are crucial for managing intermittent distancing and accelerating herd immunity.
- Longitudinal serological studies are essential to understand the duration and extent of SARS-CoV-2 immunity.
AI-generated from the title and abstract; the full text is not read.
Abstract
It is urgent to understand the future of severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission. We used estimates of seasonality, immunity, and cross-immunity for human coronavirus OC43 (HCoV-OC43) and HCoV-HKU1 using time-series data from the United States to inform a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We projected that recurrent wintertime outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 will probably occur after the initial, most severe pandemic wave. Absent other interventions, a key metric for the success of social distancing is whether critical care capacities are exceeded. To avoid this, prolonged or intermittent social distancing may be necessary into 2022. Additional interventions, including expanded critical care capacity and an effective therapeutic, would improve the success of intermittent distancing and hasten the acquisition of herd immunity. Longitudinal serological studies are urgently needed to determine the extent and duration of immunity to SARS-CoV-2. Even in the event of apparent elimination, SARS-CoV-2 surveillance should be maintained because a resurgence in contagion could be possible as late as 2024.
The authors' abstract, as published at the source. Science, 2020 · DOI ↗
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Field: Modeling and Simulation
Modeling and SimulationMathematics