The Lancet Infectious Diseases· 2020Q1

Early dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study

Adam J. Kucharski, Timothy Russell, Charlie Diamond, Yang Liu et al.

2,665citations
Q1SCImago
2020year

Short summary

Mathematical modeling suggests that once at least four independently introduced cases occur in a location with similar transmission potential to Wuhan in early January 2020, there is a greater than 50% chance of sustained COVID-19 transmission.

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Field: Modeling and Simulation

Modeling and SimulationMathematics