Eurosurveillance· 2020Q1
Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship, Yokohama, Japan, 2020
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- Q1SCImago
- 2020year
Short summary
Statistical modeling of the Diamond Princess cruise ship outbreak estimated that 17.9% of COVID-19 cases were asymptomatic, with most infections occurring before quarantine.
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Key points
- 17.9% of COVID-19 cases on the Diamond Princess were estimated to be asymptomatic.
- Most infections occurred prior to the implementation of the 2-week quarantine.
- Statistical modeling was used to adjust for delays in testing and symptom reporting.
- The study analyzed data from 3,711 people on board, with 634 testing positive.
AI-generated from the title and abstract; the full text is not read.
Abstract
On 5 February 2020, in Yokohama, Japan, a cruise ship hosting 3,711 people underwent a 2-week quarantine after a former passenger was found with COVID-19 post-disembarking. As at 20 February, 634 persons on board tested positive for the causative virus. We conducted statistical modelling to derive the delay-adjusted asymptomatic proportion of infections, along with the infections' timeline. The estimated asymptomatic proportion was 17.9% (95% credible interval (CrI): 15.5-20.2%). Most infections occurred before the quarantine start.
The authors' abstract, as published at the source. Eurosurveillance, 2020 · DOI ↗
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Field: Modeling and Simulation
Modeling and SimulationMathematics