Eurosurveillance· 2020Q1
Pattern of early human-to-human transmission of Wuhan 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), December 2019 to January 2020
- 1,432citations
- Q1SCImago
- 2020year
Short summary
The basic reproduction number (R0) for the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was estimated at 2.2 (90% HDI: 1.4–3.8), suggesting sustained human-to-human transmission with potential for global spread.
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Key points
- The basic reproduction number (R0) for 2019-nCoV was estimated at 2.2.
- The 90% high density interval for R0 was 1.4–3.8.
- The estimated R0 suggests sustained human-to-human transmission.
- Transmission characteristics are comparable to SARS-CoV and pandemic influenza.
- There is a risk of global spread due to these transmission dynamics.
AI-generated from the title and abstract; the full text is not read.
Abstract
Since December 2019, China has been experiencing a large outbreak of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) which can cause respiratory disease and severe pneumonia. We estimated the basic reproduction number R 0 of 2019-nCoV to be around 2.2 (90% high density interval: 1.4–3.8), indicating the potential for sustained human-to-human transmission. Transmission characteristics appear to be of similar magnitude to severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and pandemic influenza, indicating a risk of global spread.
The authors' abstract, as published at the source. Eurosurveillance, 2020 · DOI ↗
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Field: Modeling and Simulation
Modeling and SimulationMathematics