Science· 2020Q1
Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France
- 1,184citations
- Q1SCImago
- 2020year
Short summary
A modeling study estimates that by May 11, 2020, 5.3% (range: 3.3-9.3%) of France's population had been infected with SARS-CoV-2, with 2.9% of infected individuals hospitalized and 0.5% dying.
AI-generated from the title and abstract; the full text is not read.
Key points
- By May 11, 2020, an estimated 5.3% (range: 3.3-9.3%) of the French population was infected with SARS-CoV-2.
- Among infected individuals, 2.9% were hospitalized and 0.5% died, with mortality increasing significantly with age (0.001% for <20 years to 8.3% for ≥80 years).
- Men showed higher rates of hospitalization, intensive care admission, and death compared to women.
- The lockdown reduced the reproductive number (R0) by 77%, from 2.90 to 0.67.
- Population immunity is projected to be insufficient to prevent a second wave if all control measures are removed.
AI-generated from the title and abstract; the full text is not read.
Abstract
France has been heavily affected by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic and went into lockdown on 17 March 2020. Using models applied to hospital and death data, we estimate the impact of the lockdown and current population immunity. We find that 2.9% of infected individuals are hospitalized and 0.5% of those infected die (95% credible interval: 0.3 to 0.9%), ranging from 0.001% in those under 20 years of age to 8.3% in those 80 years of age or older. Across all ages, men are more likely to be hospitalized, enter intensive care, and die than women. The lockdown reduced the reproductive number from 2.90 to 0.67 (77% reduction). By 11 May 2020, when interventions are scheduled to be eased, we project that 3.5 million people (range: 2.1 million to 6.0 million), or 5.3% of the population (range: 3.3 to 9.3%), will have been infected. Population immunity appears to be insufficient to avoid a second wave if all control measures are released at the end of the lockdown.
The authors' abstract, as published at the source. Science, 2020 · DOI ↗
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Field: Modeling and Simulation
Modeling and SimulationMathematics