Science· 2020Q1
The impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression in low- and middle-income countries
- 1,099citations
- Q1SCImago
- 2020year
Short summary
COVID-19 mitigation strategies that only slow transmission will overwhelm health systems in lower-income countries, leading to substantial excess deaths, even with younger populations.
AI-generated from the title and abstract; the full text is not read.
Key points
- Younger populations in LMICs do not fully offset COVID-19 risks due to limited healthcare capacity and close intergenerational contact.
- Mitigation strategies that only slow transmission will cause COVID-19 epidemics to overwhelm health systems in LMICs.
- Substantial excess deaths are projected in LMICs due to poorer healthcare availability.
- LMICs acting earlier with suppression strategies will need to maintain or frequently re-trigger them, impacting economies and well-being.
AI-generated from the title and abstract; the full text is not read.
Abstract
The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic poses a severe threat to public health worldwide. We combine data on demography, contact patterns, disease severity, and health care capacity and quality to understand its impact and inform strategies for its control. Younger populations in lower-income countries may reduce overall risk, but limited health system capacity coupled with closer intergenerational contact largely negates this benefit. Mitigation strategies that slow but do not interrupt transmission will still lead to COVID-19 epidemics rapidly overwhelming health systems, with substantial excess deaths in lower-income countries resulting from the poorer health care available. Of countries that have undertaken suppression to date, lower-income countries have acted earlier. However, this will need to be maintained or triggered more frequently in these settings to keep below available health capacity, with associated detrimental consequences for the wider health, well-being, and economies of these countries.
The authors' abstract, as published at the source. Science, 2020 · DOI ↗
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Field: Modeling and Simulation
Modeling and SimulationMathematics