Science· 2020Q1
The effect of human mobility and control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in China
- 3,101citations
- Q1SCImago
- 2020year
Short summary
Human mobility data accurately predicted COVID-19 spread across China early in the epidemic, but this correlation significantly weakened after control measures were implemented, leading to negative growth rates in most locations.
AI-generated from the title and abstract; the full text is not read.
Key points
- Human mobility data initially explained the spatial spread of COVID-19 in China.
- Control measures, including travel restrictions, significantly reduced the correlation between mobility and case distribution.
- Growth rates of COVID-19 became negative in most locations after control measures were implemented.
- Shifts in case demographics suggested local transmission persisted outside of Wuhan even after controls.
AI-generated from the title and abstract; the full text is not read.
Abstract
The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak expanded rapidly throughout China. Major behavioral, clinical, and state interventions were undertaken to mitigate the epidemic and prevent the persistence of the virus in human populations in China and worldwide. It remains unclear how these unprecedented interventions, including travel restrictions, affected COVID-19 spread in China. We used real-time mobility data from Wuhan and detailed case data including travel history to elucidate the role of case importation in transmission in cities across China and to ascertain the impact of control measures. Early on, the spatial distribution of COVID-19 cases in China was explained well by human mobility data. After the implementation of control measures, this correlation dropped and growth rates became negative in most locations, although shifts in the demographics of reported cases were still indicative of local chains of transmission outside of Wuhan. This study shows that the drastic control measures implemented in China substantially mitigated the spread of COVID-19.
The authors' abstract, as published at the source. Science, 2020 · DOI ↗
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Field: Modeling and Simulation
Modeling and SimulationMathematics