Science & Technology Indonesia· 2026Q2
Probabilistic Earthquake Hazard Assessment in Indonesia Using Poisson Model and Spatial Grid Analysis
- 0citations
- Q2SCImago
- 2026year
Short summary
A new spatial grid analysis using a Poisson model reveals that subduction zones in Indonesia, particularly the Sunda Arc, have over a 90% probability of experiencing at least one earthquake of magnitude 5.0 or greater within the next 50 years.
AI-generated from the title and abstract; the full text is not read.
Key points
- A Poisson model and 0.5°x0.5° spatial grid analysis were used to assess earthquake hazards in Indonesia.
- Earthquake data from the USGS catalog (1925–2025) for M≥ 5.0 events were analyzed.
- Probabilistic risk maps were generated for 10-, 25-, and 50-year horizons.
- Sunda Arc subduction zones show >90% probability for M≥ 5.0 events within 50 years.
AI-generated from the title and abstract; the full text is not read.
Abstract
Indonesia, located at the convergence of three major tectonic plates in the Pacific Ring of Fire (ROF), is highly susceptible to earthquakes. This study analyzes earthquake hazard in Indonesia using a statistical approach based on the Poisson distribution combined with spatial mapping through a 0.5o x 0.5o grid. Earthquake data from the USGS catalog (1925–2025), including time, location, depth, and magnitude, were analyzed. Annual earthquake frequencies were calculated for each grid cell with magnitude ≥ 5.0, and the probability of at least one event occurring within 10, 25, and 50 years was estimated using the Poisson probability function. Results were visualized as spatial probability risk maps for 10-, 25-, and 50-year horizons, enabling the identification of earthquake-prone areas and classification of risk levels. The findings reveal that subduction zones, particularly along the Sunda Arc, exhibit probabilities exceeding 90% for M≥ 5 events within the next 50 years, highlighting their significance for disaster preparedness. These results demonstrate that a Poisson-based statistical and spatial approach is effective for probabilistic earthquake hazard mapping and provides direct support for disaster risk reduction and spatial planning in Indonesia.
The authors' abstract, as published at the source. Science & Technology Indonesia, 2026 · DOI ↗
Continue with a free account
Ask the paper: 3 free questions a day about this paper; save it, get its citation, new summaries every day for your field. Takeaways are Premium.
Continue free on the webSign in with Google or Apple; no card needed. You come back to this paper.
On your phone:
GeophysicsEarth and Planetary Sciences