Science· 2020Q1
An investigation of transmission control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic in China
- 2,138citations
- Q1SCImago
- 2020year
Short summary
China's national emergency response and Wuhan's travel ban delayed COVID-19's arrival in other cities by an average of 2.91 days and averted hundreds of thousands of cases by day 50.
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Key points
- Wuhan's travel ban delayed COVID-19's arrival in other cities by 2.91 days.
- Preemptive control measures in cities led to fewer initial cases (13.0 vs. 20.6).
- Suspending public transport, closing venues, and banning gatherings reduced case incidence.
- China's national response averted hundreds of thousands of cases by day 50.
AI-generated from the title and abstract; the full text is not read.
Abstract
Responding to an outbreak of a novel coronavirus [agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)] in December 2019, China banned travel to and from Wuhan city on 23 January 2020 and implemented a national emergency response. We investigated the spread and control of COVID-19 using a data set that included case reports, human movement, and public health interventions. The Wuhan shutdown was associated with the delayed arrival of COVID-19 in other cities by 2.91 days. Cities that implemented control measures preemptively reported fewer cases on average (13.0) in the first week of their outbreaks compared with cities that started control later (20.6). Suspending intracity public transport, closing entertainment venues, and banning public gatherings were associated with reductions in case incidence. The national emergency response appears to have delayed the growth and limited the size of the COVID-19 epidemic in China, averting hundreds of thousands of cases by 19 February (day 50).
The authors' abstract, as published at the source. Science, 2020 · DOI ↗
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Field: Modeling and Simulation
Modeling and SimulationMathematics